How to Stop the Ukraine/Russia War

B.W. Wojciechowski, February 2024

I proposed the following solution to the war in Ukraine in March 2023. No one took it up. I expect that Putin did not want it at the time. He may have reason to regret that. Below is the original proposal. If you read and remember the previous proposal, you can skip it and go to the second part of this essay.

There, below the first part, I present my current proposal, adjusted for today’s circumstances. It may still be too generous for some but how much will it cost to go on as is? For Putin, his family, and his closest supporters, it’s a better deal than he can reasonably expect.

The Deal That Fell Through

Here is my earlier idea of how negotiations might have brought an end to the Russia/Ukraine conflict. The numbered points are what I imagined might be reported in the media as the situation would have developed. The idea that this could have been a way out is serious. The war must end, and the question is how? Considering the stubborn determination of both sides, we needed a win-win solution. Not an easy problem, but one possible solution I will sketch for you.

Putin has a problem that threatens him and his family personally, even the Russian Federation as a whole. Russian authorities in the past were able to keep things together by untrammeled power over the population. That was unlikely to work this time. Putin depends on popular admiration by using propaganda and lower-level terror, but to survive the misadventure of this disastrous war he needed to bolster his image as a winner and savior of Mother Russia and The World. What could he do?

Well:

1. He had to wait for an opportune moment to declare victory for his cause and be sure to display sincere concern for Russia and humanity, the world. He failed to do that.

2. His opportunity would have come when NATO supplied Ukraine with enough tanks, guns, and planes to make Russian defeat clear to all, including Putin. He continued to think this could not be.

3. Putin had to become aware that the choice of escalating by using WMD, is a sure road to World War III, chaos everywhere, and Russia’s complete annihilation. That would not ensure his survival or make him a hero to other survivors.

At this point, Putin could have declared that NATO’s “escalation” threatened world peace and he, Putin, could not let that happen. The crazy, irresponsible, NATO is a menace to peace and our very existence, and he, Putin, agrees to accept peace under very reasonable conditions, to prevent Armageddon. The conditions Russia would offer and accept, are generously accommodating to all:

1. Russia will immediately withdraw Russian forces from all the territories of Ukraine and restore its borders as they were before the invasion of Crimea and the “special operation.” After all, Ukrainian fascists are now a problem for NATO to control and, at great cost, Russia has again saved the world from this scourge.

2. Russia has sacrificed much wealth and blood in once again saving Europe but will not pay a penny of compensation. The “special operation” was made necessary by a fascist Ukraine and the damages are a collateral of the Russian sacrifice of blood and wealth in defense of freedom.

3. Any accusations of crimes or injustices by Russian forces will be adjudicated in Russian courts, not the court in the Hague. Ukrainian representatives and others will be allowed to present their cases according to international law in front of 3 Russian judges. A court of appeals will be established and involve a panel of 5 international judges, one from Russia, one from Ukraine, and three from NATO countries. Appeals will only proceed with the acceptance of the case by 4 of the 5 judges. Their judgment will be final.

4. Russia will allow the private wealth of Russian citizens, confiscated because of the special operation, to be settled by the country and individuals involved. Individuals involved in such disputes can be stripped of Russian citizenship and expelled from Russia if they are found guilty of doing anything wrong involving the special operation. Otherwise, they can return to Russia or stay abroad wherever they are welcome.

5. All confiscated money from such cases need not be refunded to Russia and can be used to rebuild Ukraine if that is what NATO decides.

6. Russian Government accounts will be returned to Russia after a reasonable evaluation of present worth and a NATO-approved custodial charge is collected.

7. Russia will rejoin all international arms treaties that were in place before the operation.

8. Russia can be readmitted to all pertinent international organizations — if both parties agree.

9. Sanctions imposed on Russia will be lifted as soon as possible. Russia will have the right to appeal any delays or remaining sanctions in an appropriate court of the EU.

10. Commercial relations can be re-established with the West under the supervision of a commission tasked with controlling military supplies and other hi-tech goods, as decided by NATO authorities.

From the point of view of NATO, this solution may have restored Putin’s standing in Russia and stability in the world, saved Russia and Europe from destruction, restored Ukraine as it was, let Putin settle scores with his opponents internally, and let him claim to have saved the world. It lets Russians control their society as they wish but allows only conditional membership in international bodies. This will depend on Russia scrupulously following the rules of each such body. It stops a vicious war and lets Ukraine join whatever international organization it wishes, including NATO. It may also serve to bring Russia into a better relationship with Europe and keep it independent of China.

Winners: Putin (remains in power), Russia (avoids destruction and disintegration), Ukraine (regains complete independence, peace, and stability), and NATO (saves Europe from further expenses and possible destruction).

Losers: Numerous luckless Russian oligarchs, and the citizens of Russia, if they chose to remain voiceless and allow themselves to be subdued by the restored regime.

Costs: Ukraine and the West would have little chance of directly bringing the guilty parties to justice. The West would have to help Ukraine to undo the devastation of the war.

None of this assured the West of any encouraging change in Russian society.

The Current Best Deal.

Time has passed. The above solution is too accommodating and requires a more drastic handling of the members of the current regime. They must be accountable for the havoc they have continued to generate.

This does not mean we should wreak vengeance on the Russian leadership or their befuddled subjects. Hard as it may be to stomach, we must be realistic. Unpardonable government officials will have to be allowed to survive so we can save the masses of the innocent.

But this time we cannot allow Putin to continue to rule Russia. He and his circle will have to surrender authority in Russia and trust promises of personal security made by NATO. Their other choice at this point is to hang tough and suffer the fate of Mussolini, Ceaușescu, Gadafi, Sadam Hussain, or even Hitler. That is their choice.

NATO in turn must swallow its disgust and make an offer that is attractive to the Putin circle. The offer of necessity will leave a lot of hate, resentment, and bitterness among victims but will save much treasure and many lives. Civilized and rational diplomacy can be made to work if we act rationally. Here is how.

Putin and his closest advisors must surrender themselves to NATO custody. They will be assured of being treated fairly, and humanely, and spared indignities. They would assume the ancient roles of valuable but respected hostages, incidents familiar to them from the history of the region. There would be no trials or sentences handed down for an agreed number of senior officials whose actions are deemed to be ignorable within the context of this agreement. The hostages will be allowed to keep a part of their wealth which will be used for their protection and costs of living according to their preferences and approval by NATO. More on this below.

The fate of those spared such criminal charges would involve exile on Russian territory. Putin would be assigned an island in the Far East Pacific, in the Caspian or the Black Sea. The choice would be made by NATO. This island would be garrisoned by NATO troops who would manage local order according to the instructions of NATO and offer protection of the island and its inhabitants from land, sea, or air attack by revanchist elements. This island would be a modern-style St. Helena isolation-type location for high-value officials.

To fund the island’s operations and give its inhabitants some leeway, Putin and those who join him would be allowed to retain part of their wealth. This could be used according to their wishes to construct accommodations and fund provisions, comforts, and services on the island. In that sense, no costs would accrue to anyone but the inhabitants. This residual wealth will not be available for any activity outside the island. The retained wealth would be substantial but if the money runs out there will be no financial aid for the bankrupt.

The island’s internee population would be limited to 50 ex-officials and a limited number of immediate family members approved by Putin and NATO. Once on the island, none of the internee inhabitants would be allowed visitors or trips off the island. Children born on the Island would be schooled in NATO schools on the island and not allowed to leave before the age of 21. No family wealth could be passed on to the children but their inclusion in mainland society would not be hindered by NATO.

The rebuilding of Russian society would take place under the tutelage of NATO authorities. Certain officials of the previous administration would be retained, after being vetted for competence, and probity, and made to sign a contract that would oblige them to follow NATO directives under pain of severe legal consequences, including death for treason.

The temporary NATO administration of Russia would immediately organize a weighted-vote (WV) referendum (see my Essay on Weighted Voting on Medium) to select a broadly representative Constitutional Convention. This Convention would have available the advice of constitutional scholars from NATO countries, research resources, and 3 years to write a constitution for Russia.

The constitution would be presented for approval by Russian citizens using the WV voting system. If not accepted, the Conference would have two more years to present an amended version, and two more if the amended version is not approved again. Failing approval of any of the three versions by a suitable majority of Russian citizens, one of the versions, with any necessary changes made by NATO, would be approved by NATO and implemented. The approved form of government would be elected by WV and allowed to gradually assume all power during the period of one cadence. The whole procedure should take less than ten years. NATO would continue to maintain bases in Russia as is done in Germany and Japan until a withdrawal suits all parties.

The interned officials would have lifetime rights to their properties on the island and when none of them are left, the island would become a scansen and an international social studies center.

This solution involves a reform of Russian society under NATO supervision. It may be a better solution than the first one. However, it requires a more accommodating stance on the part of the Russians and a more hands-on involvement of NATO. The Russian Soul is a proud and sensitive entity. But even souls need to be examined to ensure their merit. For Russia, the time is now.

This solution may seem harsh but is not far off, and arguably more lenient than, the deals offered to Germany or Japan after WWII. It allows for a fundamental change in the Russian system with significant input from Russian citizens. It prevents further destruction by conflict and lets otherwise clearly endangered officials enjoy secure survival while NATO offers relief to previously powerless citizens of the Russian regime.